..中国的若开邦陷阱

——摘自：回应缅甸战略与政策研究所“中缅关系十问？”

2020.4.22·石安达

问八：缅中政府之间的联系与民间联系的发展平衡吗？

由于若开危机和国内少数民族武装冲突，缅中关系比以前更紧密了，甚至可以说当代缅中之间呈现出与之前任何时期都不同的亲密关系，过去缅中外交是不平衡的。

笔者认为，对于由于若开危机和国内少数民族武装冲突，近日缅甸内政部发表公告：总统认为若开民族联盟/若开军（ULA/AA）及其附属组织和相关人员对缅甸法律秩序、国家和平稳定及公共安全造成威胁，因此根据相关法律将其定为非法恐怖组织。而这个情况和原来缅军与民盟政府宣布若开邦罗兴亚问题若开罗兴亚救世军为国际极端主义恐怖组织。中国力排众议支持缅甸民盟政府和军方打击罗兴亚救世军，并主动协调孟加拉国和缅甸的关系，解决由此而引起的大量难民逃离若开邦到孟加拉避难的问题。但是，这次缅甸政府宣布把若开民族联盟/若开军（ULA/AA）及其附属组织和相关人员为非法恐怖组织以打击罗兴亚救世军不同。缅军与若开民族联盟/若开军（ULA/AA）的军事冲突是缅甸自己国内的民族问题。若开邦位于缅甸西北海岸，毗邻孟加拉湾，与孟加拉国接壤，古称阿拉干。这里曾有一个独立的阿拉干王国，直至18世纪被缅甸王国征服。英国殖民者在18世纪先后征服印度、缅甸后，将包括阿拉干在内的缅甸划入英属印度，直至1937年才把缅甸单独划出。1948年，缅甸独立，阿拉干成为缅甸的若开邦。近年来若开军崛起的最重要因素之一，是其若开邦人民对缅军和民盟政府在若开邦联手搞大缅族主义，压制和剥夺若开原著民的正当合理的诉求。所以，若开军得到了若开原著民上下层广大民众的支持，队伍迅速壮大，战斗力不断增强。

中国希望若开邦有一个和平稳定的环境，保证投资的安全并推动当地的经济发展造福当地的民众。所以，支持缅甸民盟政府和军方打击罗兴亚救世军为极端主义恐怖组织，积极出面斡旋正确处理缅甸与邻国孟加拉国的关系。而在这个问题上联合国人权组织和西方的一些大国指责缅甸军方和民盟政府，西方一些国家还制裁缅甸。同时，中国还支持受到国际社会孤立的昂山素季到海牙国际法庭去申诉。因此，笔者认为缅方所说的缅方认为中关系比以前更紧密了，甚至可以说当代缅中之间呈现出与之前任何时期都不同的亲密关系是和上述情况有关联的。缅方把缅中关系推到这样的高度的情况下，现在缅甸民盟政府和军方因国内民族问题宣布若开民族联盟/若开军（ULA/AA）为恐怖组织。中国如何对待刚出现的这个问题要非常谨慎。因两者的性质不同，但民盟政府和军方同样把它们定性为非法恐怖组织。并且，若开民族联盟/若开军（ULA/AA）是缅北民地武七家联盟——联邦政治谈判协商委员会（FPNCC）的成员。把若开民族联盟/若开军（ULA/AA）及其附属组织和相关人员为非法恐怖组织，必然会影响到其他民地武的关系。因此，缅甸政府和军方和若开民族联盟/若开军（ULA/AA）关系处理不当势必影响到若开邦的和平稳定与发展，甚至会扩大影响到整个缅北跨境民族地区。

中国面对严峻的挑战要作出正确地选择。如处理不好将会把中缅亲密关系从高峰跌落到谷底，中缅关系是双刃剑。如象问方所看到的：总的来看，缅甸与中国的关系进入了最好的状态，当然也会有国家利益，但是这仅仅只是政府之间的利益，实际上是否出现了真正的或者底层人民的益处的状态还有待商榷。换言之，缅甸在政治、经济、外交上依靠中国，导致在外交这个天平上中国更有分量，中国对缅政策有所进展，缅甸政府和军方希望中国在民族和解问题上发挥劝和促谈的作用，如果情况正常对缅甸政府和军方有利，对缅甸民众也有利，对中国也有利，就不会出现让缅甸的民众利益受到冲击的情况发生。

所以，笔者认为：这样的情况下如何不让民众受到冲击。这主要是看缅甸民盟政府和军方怎么做了，而不是中国方面主要承担的责任。目前，国际社会和缅甸国内都普遍认为中国是支持若开民族联盟/若开军（ULA/AA）和缅北民地武七家联盟——联邦政治谈判协商委员会（FPNCC）的。同时，若开民族联盟/若开军（ULA/AA）宣布支持中国“一带一路”的倡议，并且中国在若开邦与缅甸民盟政府合作建设的项目也很安全，只是因投资项目过大，缅甸政府认为偿还债务有困难要求减少投资。而缅甸与印度在若开邦的投资项目，因印度军方参与了缅甸军方打击若开民族联盟/若开军（ULA/AA）。因此，缅印在若开邦的合作项目受到若开民族联盟/若开军（ULA/AA）的威胁，印度对此非常不满。现在缅甸民盟政府和军方已经把若开民族联盟/若开军（ULA/AA）及其附属组织定为非法恐怖组织。在这种情况下，要中国选边站，如中国支持缅甸民盟政府和军方把若开民族联盟/若开军（ULA/AA）打为非法恐怖组织，中国与若开民族联盟/若开军（ULA/AA）和缅北民地武七家联盟——联邦政治谈判协商委员会（FPNCC）的关系就会紧张。中国对缅甸民族和解劝和促谈的工作就会受到严重的干扰，这样不但中国与缅甸合作在若开邦投资的项目的安全受到威胁。而且，影响到整个缅北中缅跨境民族地区和平稳定与发展，甚至涉及到中缅人字形经济走廊的整个战略发展形势。如中国不同意民盟政府和军方把若开民族联盟/若开军（ULA/AA）打为非法恐怖组织。那么缅甸国内就会认为中国在缅甸若开邦的投资项目只是为了中国自己的利益安全，与缅甸民盟政府和军方采取了不同的态度，让缅甸的民众利益受到冲击。又把中国当作了缅甸的敌人来对待。缅甸民盟政府和军方把中国推到了墙角处于进退两难的境地，这样缅中外交不仅是不平衡的问题了，而且若开邦成了中国的陷阱。这难道是缅方认为中缅关系进入了最好状态要做的吗？！

项庄舞剑意在沛公，面对口蜜腹剑的“朋友”中国要警惕哟！

建议中国吸取教训支持澳大利亚、加拿大、捷克共和国、丹麦、欧盟、芬兰、法国、德国、荷兰、新西兰、挪威、波兰、西班牙、瑞典、瑞士、土耳其、英国和美国等18个国家和地区驻缅大使就联合国秘书长的停火呼吁发表的声明。当前世界各国都应该把重点放在保护弱势群体免受新冠疫情的影响。呼吁缅军和民地武组织通过对话解决矛盾，停止一切敌对军事行动。希望缅甸能够团结一心应对疫情。

China's Rakhine State Trap

 —— Excerpt from: Responding to the “10 Questions on China-Myanmar Relations?”

 2020.4.22 · Shi Anda

 Question 8: Is the relationship between the Myanmar-China government the development of non-governmental ties balanced?

 Due to the Rakhine crisis the armed conflicts among ethnic minorities in the country, Myanmar-China relations have become closer than before. It can even be said that contemporary Myanmar-China relations have shown an intimate relationship different from any previous period. In the past, Myanmar-China diplomacy was unbalanced.

 The author believes that due to the Rakhine crisis the armed conflict of ethnic minorities in the country, the Ministry of the Interior of Myanmar has recently issued an announcement: The President believes that the Rakhine National Union / Rakhine Army (ULA / AA) its affiliated organizations related personnel  Peace stability public security pose threats, so they are classified as illegal terrorist organizations in accordance with relevant laws.  This situation the original Burmese army the NLD government d the Rohingya issue of Rakhine State to be an international extremist terrorist organization.  China voluntarily supported the Burma ’s NLD government military to crack down on the Rohingya Salvation Army, actively coordinated the relations between Bangladesh Myanmar to resolve the resulting large number of refugees who fled Rakhine State to seek refuge in Bangladesh.  However, this time the Myanmar government announced that the Rakhine National Alliance / Rakhine Army (ULA / AA) its affiliated organizations related personnel are illegal terrorist organizations to fight against the Rohingya Salvation Army.  The military conflict between the Myanmar Army the Rakhine National Alliance / Rakhine Army (ULA / AA) is a national issue in Myanmar ’s own country.  Rakhine State is located on the northwest coast of Myanmar, adjacent to the Bay of Bengal bordering Bangladesh, known as Arakan in ancient times.  There was an independent Arakan kingdom until it was conquered by the kingdom of Myanmar in the 18th century.  After the British colonists conquered India Burma successively in the 18th century, Burma, including Arakan, was transferred to British India. It was not until 1937 that Burma was singled out.  In 1948, Myanmar became independent Arakan became Myanmar ’s Rakhine State.  One of the most important factors for the rise of the Rakhine Army in recent years is its legitimate reasonable appeal to the Burmese Army the NLD government to join forces in Rakhine State to engage in Burmese nationalism suppress deprive the Rakhine Indigenous people.  Therefore, if the Rakhine Army gained the support of the upper lower ranks of the original Rakhine Indigenous people, the ranks grew rapidly the fighting strength continued to increase.

 China hopes that Rakhine State will have a peaceful stable environment, ensure the safety of investment promote local economic development to benefit local people.  Therefore, it supports the Burmese Democratic League government the military to fight the Rohingya Salvation Army as an extremist terrorist organization, actively takes the initiative to mediate the relationship between Myanmar neighboring Bangladesh.  On this issue, the United Nations human rights organization some major powers in the West have accused the Myanmar military the NLD government. Some Western countries have also imposed sanctions on Myanmar.  At the same time, China also supports Aung San Suu Kyi, who was isolated by the international community, to appeal to the International Court of Justice in The Hague.  Therefore, the author believes that the Myanmar side said that the Myanmar relationship is closer than before, it can even be said that the present close relationship between Myanmar China is different from any previous period is related to the above situation.  With Myanmar pushing relations between Myanmar China to such a high level, the Burma Democratic National Government the military have d the Rakhine National Alliance / Rakhine Army (ULA / AA) as a terrorist organization due to national ethnic issues.  China should be very cautious about how to deal with this emerging problem.  The nature of the two is different, but the NLD government the military have also classified them as illegal terrorist organizations.  In addition, the Rakhine National Alliance / Rakhine Army (ULA / AA) is a member of the Federal Political Negotiations Consultative Committee (FPNCC) of the seven coalitions in Northern Myanmar.  Treating the Rakhine National Alliance / Rakhine Army (ULA / AA) its affiliated organizations related personnel as illegal terrorist organizations will inevitably affect other civil-military relations.  Therefore, improper handling of the relationship between the Myanmar government the military the Rakhine National Alliance / Rakhine Army (ULA / AA) will inevitably affect the peace, stability development of Rakhine State, will even affect the entire northern Myanmar cross-border ethnic area.

 Faced with severe challenges, China must make the right choice.  If it is not handled properly, the intimate relationship between China Myanmar will fall from the peak to the bottom. The relationship between China Myanmar is a double-edged sword.  As the questioning party has seen: Generally speaking, the relationship between Myanmar China has entered the best state, of course there will also be national interests, but this is only for the interests of the government.  Or the status of the benefits of the bottom people is open to question.  In other words, Myanmar depends on China politically, economically, diplomatically, leading to China ’s greater weight in diplomacy. China ’s policy towards Myanmar has made progress. The Myanmar government military hope that China will play its part in promoting peace peace on the issue of national reconciliation.  If the situation is normal, it will benefit the Myanmar government the military, the Myanmar people, China. There will be no impact on the interests of the Myanmar people.

 Therefore, the author thinks: how to prevent the people from being hit under such circumstances.  This is mainly to see what the Burmese Democratic League government military have done, not the main responsibility of China.  At present, both the international community the country in Myanmar generally believe that China supports the Rakhine National Union / Rakhine Army (ULA / AA) the seven coalitions in Northern Myanmar—the Federal Political Negotiation Consultative Committee (FPNCC).  At the same time, the Rakhine National Alliance / Rakhine Army (ULA / AA) announced its support for China ’s “Belt Road” initiative, the projects that China ’s cooperation with the Myanmar Democratic League Government in Rakhine State are also very safe, but because of the excessive investment  The Myanmar government believes that it is difficult to repay its debts requests to reduce investment.  The Myanmar India investment projects in Rakhine State are due to the Indian military's participation in the Myanmar military's fight against the Rakhine National Alliance / Rakhine Army (ULA / AA).  Therefore, Myanmar-India cooperation projects in Rakhine State are threatened by the Rakhine National Alliance / Rakhine Army (ULA / AA), India is very dissatisfied with this.  Now the Burma League government military have designated the Rakhine National Alliance / Rakhine Army (ULA / AA) its affiliates as illegal terrorist organizations.  In this case, China is asked to choose a side station. For example, China supports the Burma Democratic League government the military to fight the Rakhine National Alliance / Rakhine Army (ULA / AA) as an illegal terrorist organization.  The relationship between the Open Army (ULA / AA) the seven coalitions of the Northern Burmese Civil War, the Federal Political Negotiation Consultative Committee (FPNCC), will be tense.  China ’s work on Myanmar ’s national reconciliation peace talks will be severely disrupted, which will not only threaten the safety of the projects that China Myanmar have invested in Rakhine State.  Moreover, it affects the peace, stability development of the entire Myanmar-China-Myanmar cross-border ethnic region, even involves the entire strategic development situation of the China-Myanmar herringbone economic corridor.  For example, China does not agree that the NLD government the military will attack the Rakhine National Alliance / Rakhine Army (ULA / AA) as an illegal terrorist organization.  Then Myanmar will think that China's investment projects in Myanmar's Rakhine State are only for the safety of China's own interests, have adopted a different attitude from the Myanmar Democratic League government the military, which has affected the interests of Myanmar's people.  He also treated China as the enemy of Myanmar.  The Burmese NLD government military pushed China to a dilemma, so that Myanmar-China diplomacy is not only an imbalance, but Rakhine State has become a trap for China.  Is this what Myanmar wants to do when Sino-Myanmar relations have entered the best state?  !

 Xiangzhuang Wujian intends to Pei Gong, China, who is a "friend" with a sweet-mouthed sword, must be vigilant!

 It is recommended that China learn lessons to support ambassadors to 18 countries regions including Australia, Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark, the European Union, Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom the United States  Statement on the cease-fire appeal of the UN Secretary-General.  All countries in the world should focus on protecting vulnerable groups from the impact of the new crown epidemic.  Call on the Burmese Army the Civilian Military Organization to resolve conflicts through dialogue stop all hostile military operations.  I hope that Myanmar can unite as one to deal with the epidemic.