缅甸军人集团是缅北战争的制造者

      ——论缅北民族武装斗争的必要性

                                                                   李刚

    2018年7月11日，第3届21世纪彬龙会议正式召开，7月14日，参加第三次“21世纪彬龙会议”的联邦政治谈判协商委员会（FPNCC）的七家组织代表及中方陪同人员从内比都飞回昆明；FPNCC七家组织并没有如昂山素季、敏昂莱之愿签署NCA；6天的会议开了3天就踏上返程，由此可见7家民地武对会议的态度，既无信心也无兴趣。

2018第三次“21世纪彬龙会议”与2016第一次、2017第二次会议相比或有几个不同：2016第一次会议，果敢同盟军等三家民地武未获邀请；2017年第二次会议，果敢同盟军等三家民地武仅以观察员身份出席；而2018第三次会议，果敢同盟军等三家民地武均以正式代表身份出席，且有了10分钟发言机会。

   但是，这些只是表层的“进步”，无论是昂山素季、敏昂莱还是其他所有缅甸军政高官，无论是公开发言还是私下交流，在“第三次会议”上只有唯一一个主题，就是呼吁民地武尽快签署NCA。第三届21世纪彬龙会议，除了各方就14项协议条款达成一致之外，会议效果与前两届会议并无太大差异，没有根本性解决缅甸的国内和平问题，NCA并未新增一家民地武签署。

   NCA是2015年吴登盛政府时期出台的，NCA的本质并不是一份协议，而是一个极不平等的强制性条约。经缅军三年恩威并用，虽有10家组织签了字，但这些签字组织而言，除克伦民族联盟（KNU）拥有较强的武装力量之外，其他组织的武装力量暂时还很弱小，在缅军强大的军事压力之下，只不过是一种缓兵之计，并不代表这些组织对NCA这个不平等条约的认可。这些组织签字之后，其实际情况又如何呢？南掸邦在2015年10月签订NCA后到2018年7月，缅军武力打击从未间断，军事进攻有300多次，战火至今仍未停息，NCA成了一纸空文；2018年8月12日，克伦民族联盟（KNU）历史节68周年纪念活动，缅军出动军队予以强行阻扰；2015年10月后近三年来的事实证明，在已签署NCA的组织中，签署之后与签署之前并无本质区别。

   2018年5月，就在“21世纪彬龙会议”召开之前，缅军在印缅边境的格拉丹河岸一线大举进攻若开军，同时又在木姐至曼德勒公路一线进攻德昂军。

    FPNCC之所以一再拒绝签订NCA协议，关键在于对缅政府不信任，已签署NCA的10家组织签字后的境遇让FPNCC对NCA无法信服。

    缅北各民族武装是爱好和平的人民，从不主动挑起武装冲突，从不侵占缅族及国内其他民族的利益，只希望依照《彬龙协议》精神，维护自己应有的合法权益并保留自己的民族文化。而事实上，近七十年来，缅军一切政治的军事的行为，都是为着不歼灭民族武装，剥夺少数民族基本权益，建立专治政权这一根本目。

历史是现实的一面镜子，我们回顾一下二战后果敢的历史,从历史的发展脉络中寻找出缅北民族武装争取自治的阻力源头以及有效的达成方式:

   1947年，昂山将军与缅北各少数民族领导人签订了《彬龙协议》，缅北各少数民族与缅族在国家关系上达成了共识，《彬龙协议》把原先分裂的缅甸整合成了一个联邦国家。《彬龙协议》明文规定，允许10年后各民族选择是否留在联邦国家内。缅甸作为一个国家的基础就是《彬龙协议》。所谓“联邦”是指若干独立主权实体组成的国家联盟，联邦制的最大特点是联邦内主权实体有高度的民族自决权和自治权。《彬龙协议》系缅甸联邦得以存在的唯一法律依据。

   缅军的政治口号，“任何一个国家都只有一个政府、一支军队和一套法律”，这句话置于不同的国家有着本质的区别。在缅甸须得要从两个方面来看待这句话，一方面，这个国家形成的政治背景与政治基础。对于缅甸联邦而言，这句话实质上违背了《彬龙协议》精神，也就违背了缅甸联邦的国家法理；另一方面，要看这支军队的性质，如果这“一支军队”是“国家军队”，那么这支军队就应该是维护国家与各民族的根本利益，但缅军的性质并不是缅甸联邦国家的军队，而是一个脱离了联邦国家领导、而且凌驾于联邦国家之上的一个“军人集团”，这个“军人集团”非但不保护各民族的利益，反而侵犯他们的利益，屠戮无辜，戕害平民，其本质就是一个军阀。一个不能代表联邦国家的军阀大呼小叫“一个国家一支军队”，非但不能让人信服，反而觉得滑稽可笑。

   《彬龙协议》在保障少数民族有自己独立的地方政府、民族武装和地方法律的前提之下，少数民族地区才加入“缅甸联邦”的。1962年缅甸奈温军人集团发动政变，废弃了以《彬龙协议》为基础的1948年《缅甸联邦宪法》，缅甸作为一个国家而存在的法律依据被废弃，缅甸联邦已经事实解体。仅仅15年时间，一份曾经给缅北各族人民带来希望的《彬龙协议》变成一片泡沫，在这里，规则与契约成了可以任意撕毁的毫无价值的一张废纸。从1963年起，在缅甸军政府武装威胁和压力下，各少数民族被迫改议会斗争为武装斗争，缅甸陷入长期战火之中。

1989年，为顺应国际和平发展之大潮流，为结束缅北地区长达26年的武装冲突，民族革命先驱彭家声主动与缅甸军政府签订了和平协议，在果敢成立“缅甸掸邦果敢第一特区”，其它民族革命组织也纷纷以“特区模式”与缅甸军政府达成和解，促成整个缅甸走上了和平发展之路。

  令外界费解的是，2008年的《缅甸联邦宪法》再也找不到《彬龙协议》的任何痕迹，全文没有一处提及少数民族的自决权和自治权,更没有少数民族退出联邦的原则性条款。因此，可以下这样一个结论：缅甸联邦以允许自由进出的《彬龙协议》开始，以不允许出去的08《缅甸联邦宪法》而结束。只要跨进门坎，就再也出不去了。从这个意义看，今天所谓的“缅甸联邦”不过是打着联邦制旗号被军人集团一手掌控的专制主义国家。

以果敢为例，民族自治进行了20年，1989年获得的民族自治实际上是不可靠、不稳定、没有保障的。原因很简单，我们自治了20年，到头来连一张正式的缅甸国民身份证都没有。缅甸政府说，果敢事务是缅甸的内政，果敢人是缅甸人，其他国家无权干涉缅甸内政。而事实上，缅甸政府只是把果敢土地看成是缅甸国土，而从未给果敢民族颁发“国民身份证”。一叶之秋，其它少数民族概不例外。

  “八八事件”后，缅军占领了果敢全境，缅政府遂即大力推行“去汉文化”政策：果敢公文、报纸、电视、商标、广告都大量使用缅文，禁用或矮化中文，中文逐步被缅文取代；学校奉行为“缅文为主、果文为辅”的教育方针, 大批缅语老师进入果敢学校强制缅文教育;强制果敢汉民参加缅族各种传统节日庆典，而华人的中秋节和端午节之类节日则刻意淡化;缅政府把下缅甸大量无业游民移民到果敢，侵占果敢人土地房屋，为同化汉民族增加人员数量，挤压果敢汉人生存空间;大批缅甸政府军驻扎果敢，强行征用果敢百姓土地后分文不给。

   由于厌倦了战争， 大多数少数民族在没有充分保障的情况下就匆匆选择了和平，而由于没有保障，和平不过是昙花一现，若干年后又被破坏，战火又重新燃起。那么，和平的保障是什么呢？很简单，和平的保障并不只是一纸和平契约，而是政府恪守和平契约的精神和我们保卫和平契约的能力。不幸的是，这两个东西当时都不具备。后来，当缅甸军人集团利用国家资源实力壮大以后，他们也就不再遵守和平契约了。

众所周知，缅甸社会最大的问题是民族矛盾，这决不是因为境内存在135个不同的民族，而是因为大缅族主义霸权的存在。美国社会存在3500个民族，但由于“民主、平等、自由、多元”的政治理念和社会制度，民族矛盾从来不是美国的主要矛盾。

   1948年独立后，缅政府就坚定奉行“四个一政策”,即“一个宗教、一种语言、一个种族、一个军队”,无视境内135个少数民族已长期存在的事实，蓄意要消灭国内少数民族的基本政治权利，实现缅甸“缅族化”的大一统天下。在缅甸政府高官的心目中有一个根深蒂固的观念：“缅甸是缅族人的缅甸”。而在其他134个少数民族人民心目中，“缅甸是包括缅族人在内的135个民族共同的缅甸”。由于这两种政治观念导致了半个多世纪的国内冲突和战乱，大缅族主义是今天缅北战争之源。

   2015年6月, 敏昂菜先生对外国使节说,“同盟军必须先放下武器投降,投降之后再谈判”。试问，1947年和1989年我们与缅政府签订的两份正式政治条约都一钱不值，凭什么让民族组织“先放下武器投降,投降之后再谈判”？缅甸军政府的终极目标是要消灭缅北的一切“非缅化形态”。如果继续抵抗，民族组织就会不断遭到军事攻击;如果放下武器，民族组织会被更迅速地消灭。总之，“消灭”正是缅甸“军人集团”对待国内一切“非缅化形态”的常态化方式，也是终极解决方式。

   和平是人类共同向往的目标，但是，和平的目的是什么？是为了让缅北民族武装有与缅族人民一样的民族尊严,有独立的政治主张,有不可侵犯的平等权利，有安定、美好和富足的生活。台湾在50年的日据时期确有“和平”，朝鲜半岛在日本殖民时期并无战乱，二战时法国维希政权统治区也有“和平”，中国抗战时汪精卫政权统治下的南京从无战事。是真和平还是假政治，不言而喻！

   众所周知，2019年二九光复之战以来3年多时间里，同盟军从未拒绝过谈判；和平谈判是民族革命组织的一贯的政治主张。“谈判”是一种身份对等的相互协商行为，和谈不得附带任何先决条件的。胜者与俘虏之间不存在什么谈判，，缅军集团“先投降后谈判”的要求，是谈判吗？不是！而是一种霸王条款，一种强制行为。如果“先投降后谈判”，那也就不需要谈判了。同样，如果民族组织让缅军“先投降后谈判”，试问，军人集团会接受吗？

   我个人认为，在目前缅北局势下，缅北民族组织的最高利益仍然必须靠武装斗争来争取。每一个人都不喜欢战争，都希望和平。但是，如果只有屈辱的和平与勇敢的反抗这两种选择，那么，我相信任何一个民族都会宁愿选择后者。今天缅北民族武装陷入战争灾难的局面是大缅族主义强加的，这不是他们能选择和逃避的。因而只能勇敢面对、迎刃而上！

   缅甸要和平并不难，其症结在缅军集团。如果缅军集团真正能够象世界人民所共同期盼得那样，按照《彬龙协议》精神展开政治对话，依照缅甸联邦建国的基本法理，保障民族地区高度自治的合法权益，实现民族平等，不再发动战争，缅甸自然就和平啦！

    2018年8月20日於深圳      

Burma military Group is the maker of the Northern Burma War On the necessity of the armed struggle of the ethnic groups in the north of Myanmar Li Gang

On July 11, 2018, the 3rd Binglong Conference of the 21st Century was officially held. Representatives of the seven organizations of the Federal political negotiation Consultative Committee (FPNCC) their Chinese entourage flew back to Kunming from Naypyidaw to attend the third "Binglong Conference of the 21st Century". The seven organizations did not sign the NCAs as Aung San Suu Kyi Minnley wished. The six-day meeting took place on the return journey after three days, so it can be seen that the attitude of the seven people to the meeting is neither confident nor interested. 2018 the third "Binglong 21st Century Conference", compared to the first second meetings of 2016 2017, or a few different sessions, the first session of 10: 2016, three civilian armed forces, including the Kokang Confederate Forces, were not invited; the second Conference in 2017, Three civil armed forces of the Kokang Allied Forces attended only as observers, while at the third meeting of 2018, all three of the Allied Coalition Forces were represented in their official capacity were given the opportunity to speak for 10 minutes. But these are only superficial "advances", whether they are Aung San Suu Kyi, Minh Aung Rai, or all the other senior Burmese military political officials, whether they speak in public or communicate privately, there is only one theme at the third meeting. Is to call on civilian weapons to sign the NCA as soon as possible. In addition to the agreement reached by the parties on 14 articles of agreement, the results of the third 21st Century Binglong Conference were not much different from those of the previous two conferences, there was no fundamental solution to the domestic peace problem in Myanmar. The NCA, which was introduced in 2015 under Thein Sein's administration, is not an agreement, but a highly unequal mandatory treaty. After three years of enmity use by the Tatmadaw, although 10 organizations have signed their signatures, the armed forces of these signatory organizations, apart from the strong armed forces of the Karen National Union (KNU), are still very weak for the time being. Under intense military pressure from the Tatmadaw, it is merely a respite, does not mean that these groups approve of the unequal treaty of the NCA. After the signing of these organizations, what about the actual situation? after the signing of the NCA in October 2015, until July 2018, the Tatmadaw forces have never stopped fighting, with more than 300 military offensives, the fighting has not stopped until now. On August 12, 2018, at the 68th anniversary of the Karen National Union (KNU) (KNU) History Festival, the Tatmadaw deployed troops to forcibly block it; in the nearly three years since October 2015, it has been proved that, among the organizations that have signed the NCA, There is no essential difference between after signing before signing. In May 2018, just before the "21st Century Binglong Conference," the Tatmadaw attacked Rakhine on the Gladan River along the Indo-Myanmar border, while at the same time attacking de Aung on the Muji-Mandalay highway. The key to FPNCC's repeated refusal to sign the NCA agreement lies in distrust of the Burmese government, which has been unconvinced by the 10 organisations that have signed the NCA. The armed forces of all ethnic groups in the north of Myanmar are peace-loving people who never take the initiative to provoke armed conflicts, never encroach on the interests of the Burmese other ethnic groups in the country, only hope to follow the spirit of the "Binglong Agreement". To safeguard their legitimate rights interests to preserve their own national culture. In fact, in the past 70 years, all the political military acts of the Tatmadaw have been aimed at not annihilating the national armed forces, depriving the minority nationalities of their basic rights interests, establishing a special political regime. History is a mirror of reality. We look back at the bold history after World War II, find out from the development of history the source of resistance the effective way to achieve autonomy for the ethnic armed forces in the north of Myanmar: 1947. General Aung San signed a "Binglong Agreement" with the leaders of ethnic minorities in northern Myanmar, the ethnic minorities in northern Myanmar reached a consensus on the relations between the state. The "Binglong Agreement" integrated the divided Burma into a federal state. The Binglong Agreement expressly allows ethnic groups to choose whether or not to remain in the federal State after 10 years. The foundation of Myanmar as a nation is the Binglong Agreement. The so-called "federation" refers to a national union composed of several independent sovereign entities, the most characteristic of which is that the sovereign entities within the Federation have a high degree of national self-determination autonomy. The Binglong Agreement is the only legal basis for the existence of the Union of Myanmar. The political slogan of the Tatmadaw, "there is only one government, one army one set of laws in any country," is essentially different from each other. There are two ways to look at this sentence in Myanmar, on the one hand, the political background the political basis of the country. For the Union of Myanmar, this sentence actually runs counter to the spirit of the "Binglong Agreement" goes against the national jurisprudence of the Union of Myanmar. On the other hand, depending on the nature of this army, if this "one army" is a "national army," Then this army should safeguard the fundamental interests of the country all ethnic groups, but the nature of the Tatmadaw is not that of the national army of the Union of Myanmar. It is a "military group" that has left the leadership of the federal state is above the federal state. Instead of protecting the interests of all ethnic groups, this "military group" has violated their interests, slaughtered innocent people killed civilians. Its essence is a warlord. A warlord who does not represent a federal state screams "one country, one army", which, far from convincing, finds it amusing. On the premise of guaranteeing the ethnic minorities to have their own independent local government, ethnic armed forces local laws, the "Binglong Agreement" only became a member of the "Union of Myanmar". In 1962, the NWN military group of Myanmar launched a coup abandoned the 1948 Constitution of the Union of Myanmar, which was based on the Binglong Agreement. The legal basis of Myanmar as a country was abandoned, the Union of Myanmar had de facto disintegrated. In just 15 years, a "Binglong Agreement" that once brought hope to the peoples of northern Myanmar has turned into a bubble, where rules contracts have become a worthless piece of paper that can be torn up at will. Since 1963, under the armed threat pressure of Myanmar's military junta, the ethnic minorities have been forced to fight into armed struggle, Myanmar has been in the midst of a long war. In 1989, in keeping with the great trend of international peace development in order to end the 26-year armed conflict in northern Myanmar, Peng Jiasheng, a pioneer of the national revolution, signed a peace agreement with the military junta of Myanmar, establishing the "first Special Zone of Kokang in Kokang State of Myanmar" in Kokang, Myanmar. Other national revolutionary organizations have also adopted the "special zone model" to reach reconciliation with Burma's military junta, which has enabled the whole country to embark on the road of peaceful development. It was puzzling to the outside world that the 2008 Constitution of the Union of Myanmar could no longer find any trace of the Binglong Agreement that there was no reference in the text to the right of self-determination autonomy of ethnic minorities, nor was there any provision of principle for the withdrawal of minorities from the Union. Thus, it can be concluded that the Union of Myanmar begins with the Panglong Agreement, which allows free access, ends with the Constitution of the Union of Myanmar, which is not allowed to go out. As long as you enter the threshold, you will never get out again. In this sense, today's so-called "Union of Myanmar" is nothing more than an autocratic state under the banner of federalism, dominated by the junta. Take bold as an example, the national autonomy has been going on for 20 years, the national autonomy obtained in 1989 is actually unreliable, unstable unsafeguarded. The reason is simple: we have been autonomous for 20 years, in the end we don't even have a formal Myanmar national identity card. The Burmese government said that kokang affairs are Myanmar's internal affairs, kokang people are Burmese, other countries have no right to interfere in Myanmar's internal affairs In fact, the Government of Myanmar only regards kokang las the territory of Myanmar has never issued a "national identity card" to the Kokang people. In the autumn of one leaf, other ethnic minorities are no exception. After the "August 8 incident," the Burmese army occupied the whole territory of Kokang, the Burmese government vigorously pursued the policy of "going to the Han Dynasty": bold official documents, newspapers, television, trademarks advertisements were all heavily used in the Burmese language, the Chinese language was banned or dwarfed. The Chinese language was gradually replaced by the Burmese language; the school adopted the educational policy of "Burmese as the main language the fruit as the secondary language", a large number of Myanmar language teachers entered the Kokang school to enforce the Myanmar language education; forced the Kuokang Han people to participate in various traditional festivals of the Burmese nationality. On the other hand, the Mid-Autumn Festival Dragon Boat Festival festivals of the Chinese people were deliberately desalinated; the Burmese government emigrated a large number of homeless people from Myanmar to Kokang, occupied the lhouses of the Kuokang people, increased the number of personnel for the assimilation Han nationality, squeezed the living space of the Kuokang Han people. A large number of Burmese government troops stationed in Kokang, forced expropriation of Kokang people's lafter no money. Tired of war, most ethnic minorities hastily opted for peace without adequate security, because of the lack of security, peace was only a flash in the pan, years later it was broken the war reignited. So what is the guarantee of peace? quite simply, the guarantee of peace is not just a peace contract, but the Government's adherence to the spirit of the peace contract our ability to defend it. Unfortunately, neither of these things was available at the time. Later, when Burma's military junta used the country's resources to grow, they stopped abiding by the peace pact. As we all know, the biggest problem in Myanmar society is the ethnic contradiction, which is not because there are 135 different ethnic groups in Myanmar, but because of the existence of the hegemony of the Greater Burmanism. There are 3500 nationalities in American society, but because of the political idea social system of "democracy, equality, freedom pluralism", the national contradiction has never been the main contradiction of the United States. Since its independence in 1948, the Myanmar Government has firmly pursued the "four ones policy", namely, "one religion, one language, one race one army", ignoring the fact that 135 ethnic minorities in the country have long existed. Deliberately to eliminate the basic political rights of the ethnic minorities in the country, to realize the "Burman nationalization" in Myanmar. There is a deep-rooted belief in the minds of senior Burmese government officials that "Myanmar is a Burma of Burmese ethnic origin". In the eyes of the other 134 ethnic minorities, "Myanmar is the common Myanmar of 135 ethnic groups, including the Burmese people." As a result of these two political concepts led to more than half a century of internal conflicts wars, the great Burmese nationalism is the source of the war in northern Burma today. In June 2015, Mr. Minang é told foreign envoys that "the Allied forces must surrender first then negotiate after surrender". The two formal political treaties we signed with the Burmese government in 1947 1989 are worthless. Why should ethnic groups "lay down their arms surrender first?" "the ultimate goal of the Burmese junta is to eliminate all" non-Burmese forms "of northern Myanmar." If resistance continues, ethnic groups will continue to be subjected to military attacks; if they are laid down, they will be eliminated more quickly. In a word, "annihilation" is the norm the ultimate solution of Myanmar's "military group" in treating all the "non-Burmese forms" in the country. Peace is the common goal of mankind, but what is the purpose of peace? it is for the armed forces of northern Myanmar to have the same national dignity as the Burmese people, independent political opinions inviolable equal rights. Have a stable, beautiful prosperous life. There was "peace" in Taiwan during the Japanese occupation period of 50 years, there was no war on the Korean peninsula during the Japanese colonial period, there was "peace" in the French Vichy regime during World War II, there was no war in Nanjing under the Wang Jingwei regime during the Chinese War of Resistance against Japan. True peace or false politics! it is well known that the Allied forces have never refused to negotiate for more than three years since the War of the Restoration of February 9, 2019; peace talks have always been a political proposition of the National Revolutionary Organization. "negotiation" is a reciprocal act of mutual consultation, peace talks must not carry any preconditions. There is no negotiation between the winner the prisoners. The Tatmadaw's requirement of "surrender first negotiate later" is a negotiation? no! it is a hegemonic clause, a coercive act. If "surrender before negotiation", then there would be no need to negotiate. Similarly, if the ethnic group asks the Tatmadaw to "surrender first then negotiate," will the military community accept it? I personally believe that under the current situation in northern Myanmar, the best interests of the ethnic organization in the north of Myanmar still have to be fought through armed struggle. Everyone does not like war wants peace. But if there were only two choices of humiliating peace brave resistance, I believe that any nation would prefer the latter. The situation in which the ethnic armed forces in the north of Myanmar are caught in a war disaster today is imposed by the greater Burmese ethnocentrism, this is not something they can choose avoid. It is not difficult for Myanmar to have peace. The crux of the problem lies with the Tatmadaw. If the Tatmadaw really can, as the common expectations of the people of the world, open a political dialogue in accordance with the spirit of the "Binglong Agreement," safeguard the legitimate rights interests of a high degree of autonomy in ethnic areas in accordance with the basic legal principles of the founding of the Union of Myanmar, To achieve national equality not to wage war, Myanmar will naturally be peaceful!

          Shenzhen, 20 August 2018